Page 30 - Craftcil Nov-Dec 2023

feature

Brexit may stimulate direct trade with UK

The United Kingdom (UK) may offer interesting opportunities,
due to its high imports from developing countries and potentially
increased interest in direct sourcing. The UK’s withdrawal from
the European Union (Brexit) has led to relatively low consumer
confidence levels since 2016. At the same time, Brexit may result
in British buyers importing more products directly from developing
countries, rather than from European importers. This allows them
to avoid additional fees now that they are no longer part of the
European Union’s single market.

After some fluctuations, British lighting imports increased
from •741 million in 2017 to •823 million in 2021. The relatively
strong performance in 2021 followed a dip of -18% in 2020. 76%
imports grew from •1.4 billion in 2017 to •1.6 billion in 2021, with
of these imports came directly from developing countries, which
a CAGR of 4.1%. This included 2.9% growth in 2020, despite the
hold the largest market share in Europe. China supplied most of
global trade disruptions. Germany’s role as a key trade hub in
the 76%.
Europe may have helped the country maintain a strong
performance.
The Netherlands is an important European trade hub
About two thirds of Germany’s import value came directly
The Netherlands is an important European trade hub. It
from developing countries. This is well above the European
maintained a strong performance during the pandemic. This could
average. These imports grew from •808 million in 2017 to •1.0
make the Netherlands an interesting market. Dutch lighting
billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 6.2%. China is by far Germany’s
imports grew from •430 million in 2017 to •603 million in 2021,
main lighting supplier (about 60%), followed by European
with a CAGR of 8.8%. This included a relatively modest decline of
neighbour Poland (7.2% in 2021). These statistics include electrical
-5.5% in 2020. In the same period, developing countries’ direct
products, which China specialises in. As a result, the percentages
market share grew from 49% to 56%, which is comparable to the
quoted for China are even stronger. Industrial production is also
European average. China (52%) and Germany (10%) are the
well developed in China.
leading suppliers.
France is shifting its focus to intra-European imports The Netherlands depends heavily on international trade, so
Brexit and international trade disputes may have a big impact on
Europe’s second-largest lighting importer is France. However,
the country. This makes Dutch imports difficult to predict.
France appears to be importing more and more from European
trade hubs like Germany and Belgium. This may limit opportunities
Spain is facing economic struggles
to enter the French market directly.
Spain is the fifth largest European import market for lighting.
France’s lighting imports have fluctuated in recent years.
The Spanish economy experienced the largest drop in Europe
Overall, they grew from •956 million in 2017 to •1.1 billion in
between 2017 and 2021, with a decrease in GDP of -11% in
2021, with a CAGR of 2.4%. However, the 2021 import figures
2020. A return to pre-pandemic levels is expected in the second
probably include delayed shipments following a -15% dip in 2020.
half of 2023, making the Spanish economy the slowest to recover
The direct import market share of developing countries dropped
in Europe. This, of course, could limit opportunities in Spain for
from 53% in 2017 to 45% in 2021, which is relatively low. China
the coming years.
(43%) and Germany (12%) are still France’s leading suppliers.

30 CRAFTCIL • November-December 2023